The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has announced that the likelihood of El-Nino developing during the second half of the year is increasing. Most international climate centres are in agreement that there is about 60% chance of El-Nino developing during May-July 2023, and will increase to about 70-80% during June-September 2023.

El-Nino is a phenomenon that occurs when sea surface temperature over the tropical Pacific Ocean becomes warmer than average. It is also known to be the ‘warm phase’ of the El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. This phenomenon occurs every 3-7 years on average, and tends to peak during Northern Hemisphere winter (December to February).

During El-Nino episode, temporary disruptions to local weather patterns is expected around the world, including Brunei Darussalam. The impacts of El-Nino to our country includes suppressed rainfall activity with increasing air temperature and low relative humidity. Dry and hot weather conditions are expected to occur in the coming months with possible increase in daily maximum temperatures reaching 34.0°C or more in the afternoon.

Excessive Hot Weather (EHW) or commonly known as heatwave event in Brunei Darussalam tends to occur during ElNino episodes. EHW is defined when daily observed maximum temperature is at least 35.0°C for three consecutive days. The most recent EHW event observed in Brunei Darussalam was during an El-Nino episode on the 28-30 September 2019.

In view of the likelihood of El-Nino occurring, the department would like to advise the general public to take any necessary precaution and safety measures and to follow any guidelines from the Ministry of Health with regards to the hot weather condition.

We shall continue to monitor the weather conditions and will issue weather advisories or warnings if necessary. Latest weather information, advisories and warnings can be accessed easily through our mobile app, Brunei WX, as these weather information, advisories and warnings can be received immediately after they are issued. Latest weather information can also be obtained by contacting the duty meteorological forecaster at our Forecast Centre, through our Weather Line 114, by visiting our website at www.met.gov.bn or follow our Facebook (@bruneiweather), Instagram (@brunei.weather) and our Telegram Channel (Brunei Weather).

Wallahu a’lam Bissawab.